Given the current fragile state of the economy I participate in a lot of conversations about "what if". What if the economy collapses? What if it turns around and begins it's path upward? So then for us landlords and property investors is it best to have our properties paid off free and clear, or should we have them mortgaged to the hilt?
The answer really depends on what is going to happen with the US Dollar. If you take a look at the last few years, obviously the USD has not fared well. The USD is no longer money and hasn't been for a long time, it's currency backed by nothing. The same goes for the world currency. History has proven over and over that fiat currency has a 100% failure rate. It typically fails in the form of moderate inflation, followed by hyper-inflation, until the currently is completely worthless.
In Zimbabwe for instance their fiat currency just recently inflated well over 200 MILLION percent. Can you imagine it costing trillions of dollars to buy a loaf of bread? This example has repeated itself with many countries throughout history who adopted a fiat currency. This is the fate of every fiat currency in the world, including the USD. The only question remains is: when?
When that day comes, be it next year, or 10 years from now, will it be best to have all your debts paid off or have a ton owing? I'm really open to AR members ideas here.
My own opinion is it's going to be best to have everything leveraged. If moderate inflation continues, as each year passes you literally owe less on your properties. A $200,000 loan today will be like a $100,000 loan in 5 years if inflation presses on. If (or when) the USD goes into hyperinflation, a $200,000 loan will cost a mere couple cents to pay off in the future.
However the flip side to the coin. What if the USD started deflating? The exact opposite would happen. It would be much harder to pay off a loan because we would be earning less. Rents would go down along with other commodities. This would be very bad, and likely the best place to be in this situation is in a free and clear position with properties.
So how likely is deflation to occur? There might be momentary blips; however, the entire arc of power in DC and Wall Street do not want deflation to occur. It's bad for government and it's bad for banks. Since the government and the banks have complete control over money supply, and therefore complete control over inflation/deflation it seems unlikely.
Inflation on the other hand seems extremely likely. Each dollar the Fed prints, and each new loan creates more fiat currency. Every dollar printed (or in reality, created from thin air), slightly devalues all existing dollars. Since the government is running a huge deficit (the largest in history) now in the trillions, they have to print money faster than they are spending it to remain in business. So they are creating money faster than ever before and inflation will adjust to compensate with some of the highest inflation we've ever seen in the USD.
I'm not a betting man necessarily; however, if I had to place wagers I would certainly go with the odds. What would you do?
--- about the author ---
Nathan is a landlord and property investor who founded Rentec Direct which provides free software for landlords. Because of the importance of thorough screening for prospective tenants, we have integrated tenant screening directly into the software so in just a few clicks a complete and comprehensive background check including previous evictions can be done on any new tenants.
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